Australia recently suffered a shock group stage exit from the T20 World Cup 2026, which India and Sri Lanka are co-hosting. The elimination of Mitchell Marsh’s side came following defeats to Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka.
Australia’s elimination from the tournament was confirmed after the Ireland vs Zimbabwe match in Pallekele ended in a no result due to rain. The T20 World Cup 2021 champions will sign off with a match against Oman on Friday.
However, now that their ongoing T20 World Cup campaign is over, the spotlight has fallen on Australia’s chances of qualifying for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics.
Australia currently safe in their bid to qualify for LA 2028 Olympics
On paper, Australia’s qualification for the Los Angeles 2028 Olympics could be in danger following their group-stage exit from the T20 World Cup 2026. However, here is the reality—Australia’s qualification for the LA 2028 Olympics is currently safe.
According to a report in The Guardianthe LA 2028 Olympics could feature six teams in the men’s cricket competition.
The United States of America (USA) will automatically qualify as hosts, and the other teams to qualify will be the top-ranked teams from each of the ICC regional divisions—Asia, Africa, the Americas, Europe and Oceania, as per the cut-off date, which is the end of the T20 World Cup 2026 on 8 March.
Australia are currently ranked third in the ICC T20I rankings, whereas New Zealand are in fourth place. According to The AgeNew Zealand could overtake Australia in the rankings and take the Oceania spot for the LA 2028 Olympics.
ICC rating points calculated
This could happen should the Black Caps reach the semi-final or the final of the ongoing T20 World Cup. However, the rankings calculation is not as simple as it sounds. While the two Trans-Tasman rivals are separated by just one spot, they are divided by eight rating points.
Australia have 258 rating points, whereas New Zealand have 250. Team ratings are calculated by a weighted ranking system formulated by David Kendix.
This makes quick changes unlikely. Team ratings are calculated by dividing total points earned by the total games played, based on the strength of the opposition and recency of the matches.
Matches which have taken place in the last two years count for full points, whereas older matches only carry half the weight.
Australia’s ratings are currently calculated from 48 matches, whereas New Zealand’s are based on 62 matches.
Should the Kiwis reach the final, their total number of matches will go up to 67, whereas Australia would have played 49 matches.
Australia take on Oman in their last match of the tournament on Thursday. Should Australia lose to Oman, their rating points will reduce to 256.
As per Hindustan Timesfor New Zealand to overtake Australia, they will need to improve their overall points tally from 15,515 to 17,152. That will mean a gain of 1,637 points.
However, even if the Kiwis beat Pakistan, England and Sri Lanka in the Super Eight and go on to win the tournament, they would only gain 1,491 points, meaning that they would be 146 points short.
Should Australia beat Oman on Thursday, then the gap between the two teams will become even more tighter.
