Tension between America and Iran seems to be increasing rapidly. In the last few weeks, America has significantly increased its military presence in the Middle East. Experts believe that this could be the largest military gathering since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. However, it is also possible that this military preparation is just a pressure tactic, so that Iran can be forced into an agreement. America’s Gulf region allies are also worried about the uncertain consequences of a possible attack.
If talks between America and Iran fail and President Donald Trump decides to attack, it could have major consequences. Let us understand from 7 possible situations.
1. America can attack nuclear targets
America can launch precise air and naval strikes on Iran’s IRGC, Basij forces, missile bases and nuclear centers. If this weakens the government and brings about change, it may look positive. But the examples of Iraq and Libya show that it is not easy to bring stable democracy after dictatorship. Sometimes chaos increases.
2. Government remains in place, but policies remain soft
It is possible that even after the attacks, the current government of Iran will remain in power, but it may make some changes in its policies, which will be in the interest of the public. Such as reducing support to regional militias or limiting nuclear programs. However, the Iranian leadership has shown less flexibility in the past decades.
3. Military rule may be imposed in Iran
If the current government of Iran falls due to America’s attack, then powerful groups like IRGC can run their rule. This will not lead to democracy but a harsh military rule. Due to this, common people may have to face more strict rules and laws instead of freedom.
4. Direct response
Iran has already warned that it will respond to the attack. It has ballistic missiles and drones. It can target American bases in the Gulf or countries like Israel.
5. Tension in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran can create obstacles in the Strait of Hormuz. About 20-25% of the world’s oil is supplied from here. The blockage will increase oil prices and affect the global economy.
6. Attack on American warship
Iran can target American ships with strategies like swarm attack. If this happens the conflict may increase further.
7. Mass chaos
If the current government of Iran falls due to America’s action, civil war and ethnic conflict may erupt. This could lead to a refugee crisis and humanitarian crisis, which would impact the entire Middle East.
