Crude oil prices shoved near a six-month high on escalating US-Iran tensions, which have significantly influenced market sentiment.
As of February 20, 2026, MCX crude oil futures for the March 2026 expiry were trading flat at ₹6,050 per barrel after early gains. Meanwhile, in the international market, Brent crude futures have increased by 33 cents, or 0.5%, hitting $71.99, while US West Texas Intermediate crude has risen by 62 cents, or 0.9%, reaching $67.05 as of 0715 GMT, according to reuters.
Brent was headed for a weekly gain of 6% and WTI crude of over 5%. The rally followed US President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran to negotiate a nuclear agreement, giving Tehran just 10–15 days to strike a deal.
The US has also increased its military presence in the Middle East to the greatest extent since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, which increases the likelihood of a longer-term and more extensive operation than the overnight attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities last June.
Along with heightened US-Iran tensions, stalled nuclear negotiations, and joint naval drills between Iran and Russia in the pivotal Strait of Hormuz—a crucial route for nearly 20% of global oil transportation—have escalated risk premiums.
Furthermore, the breakdown of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Geneva has ignited fears of extended sanctions and supply disruptions, bolstering WTI prices. Additionally, shrinking crude inventories in the US and China illustrate a tightening market, despite OPEC+’s planned output increases.
Technical view: Where is oil headed?
Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, highlighted that WTI crude has staged a sharp recovery from the $55 zone.
“Every rally has found support around the key Fibonacci retracement level of 50% or 78.6%. It’s forming a bullish higher high higher low structure and pushing towards $66. The structure now resembles a Flag consolidation below a falling trendline, with key support emerging around $62 to $63 and a deeper base near $59. RSI remains above 50, indicating positive momentum despite short-term volatility,” opined the expert.
Further, he believes that from a supercycle perspective, this setup is significant.
Historically, in commodity upcycles, leadership rotates in a sequence. Sheth explained that gold moves first as liquidity expands and real rates peak. Silver and base metals follow as growth expectations improve. Energy typically joins later, when industrial momentum and inflationary pressures broaden. Currently, it is the US-Iran tensions that seem to be driving the prices higher.
“However, we believe crude oil has much more tailwinds like the US shale revolution coming to an end, underinvestments in capacities, upcoming surge in demand as countries like China build up their strategic reserves that are driving the prices up. Crude has lagged but is now compressing under resistance. A decisive breakout above $66 can trigger the next leg higher to levels of $72-73. A breakout will potentially confirm that the energy phase of the commodity supercycle is “underway,” added Sheth.
According to Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities, MCX crude oil March has appreciated by more than 5% in the week so far, and may stay bullish for a couple of weeks amid the risk of escalation of geopolitical risk. ₹6,300/bbl is the next resistance for crude. On the flip side, ₹6,000/bbl is a floor.
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