The India vs Zimbabwe match on 26 February is critical for the Men in Blue’s qualification scenario. To enter the semi-finals, India must win big against Sikandar Raza’s team. Here’s how it will work out.
If India bats first
When batting first against Zimbabwe, India must focus on maximizing their Net Run Rate (NRR). Suryakumar Yadav knows the team must recover from the heavy -3.800 deficit caused by their 76-run loss to South Africa.
If batting first, India should post a massive total. They must target a score well above 200+ (ideally 220–240) to create a high winning margin. To utilize the spin-friendly but often high-scoring conditions in Chennai, India need to have a flying start.
To significantly repair their NRR, India should aim to win by 70-80 runs. A dominant victory is essential because the West Indies (+5.350) and South Africa (+3.800) already have massive positive NRRs.
If India field first
If India field first against Zimbabwe, their primary objective remains repairing the massive -3.800 NRR deficit. For that, India has to restrict Zimbabwe to a low total. SKY is likely to have dropped Arshdeep Singh and included Kuldeep Yadav.
KD, along with Varun Chakaravarthy and Axar Patel (he should be back), must utilize the spin-friendly conditions at Chepauk to bowl Zimbabwe out cheaply. Ideally, they should be bundled out under 100–120 runs.
India need openers, Ishan Kishan and Abhishek Sharma, to fire from the very first ball. However, Sharma has been struggling this World Cup, scoring just 15 runs against South Africa and failing to score in the group stage.
It will be interesting to see if India drop Abhishek and include Sanju Samson as the opener. Sanju had only one chance in this ICC tournament. Against Namibia, he scored 22 off 8 balls.
Simply winning is not enough. India need to chase the target as quickly as possible, ideally within 12–13 overs. Finishing the game early significantly boosts NRR compared to a late finish. That’s true even if the margin of victory in runs is not applicable.
West Indies vs South Africa
On 26 February, there will be another Group 1 match: West Indies vs South Africa. If the Proteas lose, their NRR will suffer, benefiting India’s cause. Both teams are still undefeated in the tournament. The winning streak is going to end for one team.
The match will take place at 3 PM while India’s encounter with Zimbabwe will start at 7 PM. So, Gautam Gambhir and his management will be well aware of the situation before the match starts.
