Auto Stocks: The impact of the increasing war in the Middle East and the gas supply crisis is beginning to be seen on the Indian auto sector as well…
highlights
- Due to geo-political tension in the Middle East, crude oil prices are being affected and there is a shortage of gas.
- This is affecting the raw materials and total production of auto companies. Big auto companies are now facing the threat of loss.
- Stocks like Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra & Mahindra and Ashok Leyland have fallen by up to 16%.
impact of middle east tension
Due to the increasing conflict between Iran and America-Israel in the Middle East, pressure on oil and gas supply has increased. According to reports, instability in the energy market has increased due to the impact of movement of ships in the Strait of Hormuz. This is impacting crude oil prices and gas supply, which are important inputs for the auto industry.
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The increasing tension in the Middle East and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz impacts Indian auto companies in many ways. First, rising oil and gas prices impact the production of key raw materials. For example, rising oil prices may impact paint prices, and gas shortages may impact overall industrial production. Apart from this, rising oil prices can create a recession in the industry. If oil prices increase, customers may reduce purchasing vehicles.
How are auto companies affected?
According to analysts, rising energy prices and gas shortages could impact auto companies on many levels. Its effect can be seen in different ways-
- increasing cost of raw materials
- Increase in prices of paint and other chemicals
- Less availability of gas in manufacturing
- pressure on vehicle demand
According to Motilal Oswal Financial Services, the auto sector is already facing many challenges. These include rising raw material costs, supply-chain problems and semiconductor shortages.
Why did the gas crisis become a big concern?
According to the report of global brokerage Nomura, India’s LNG supply may be affected due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Nomura says that India has a contract for LNG import with Qatar Energy. But if the supply from Qatar and UAE is affected, then about 48% of the country’s LNG imports may be at risk. The industrial sector uses about 60% of this imported LNG, so its shortage can directly impact manufacturing.
Overall, OEM companies that are operating at excess capacity and have low stock of vehicles may be at risk of some losses in production. Nomura said that all companies included in the coverage (OEM and suppliers) appear to be at risk, because if any one supplier (be it Tier-2 or Tier-3) faces problems in supplying LNG, the production line will stop.
Actually, gas plays an important role in auto production. Gas is used in many important processes in auto manufacturing, such as-
- paint shop
- forging and casting
- Heat Treatment of Metal Parts
Experts say that it is not easy to replace gas with electricity in a short time because it requires changes in machinery.
Auto Stocks: Which companies are at greater risk of impact?
According to the brokerage report, the companies that may be most affected by the reduction in gas supply are-
- Maruti Suzuki India
- TVS Motor Company
- Bajaj Auto
- Balkrishna Industries
- Apollo Tires
- Bharat Forge
Will there be an immediate impact?
Although Federation of Automobile Dealers Association official Sai Giridhar says that at present the direct impact of the gas crisis is not visible on the production of auto companies, but if this situation continues for a long time, then the impact of disruption in the supply chain can be seen on the auto industry.
Overall, the auto sector is currently under pressure due to the energy crisis and Middle East tension. Investors are now keeping an eye on the potential impact on production and supply chains in the coming weeks.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice in any way. ET NOW Swadesh recommends its readers and viewers to consult their financial advisors before taking any money-related decisions.
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