The Election Commission on Sunday (15 March) announced the dates for the assembly elections of West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry. This year, voting is to be held on 824 assembly seats in five states. This time elections will be held in Bengal in only two phases instead of eight. Whereas elections in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry will end in a single phase. Just after the announcement of the elections, an opinion poll also came. According to this, Bharatiya Janata Party can get a strong lead in Bengal. Similarly, the mood of the people of all the states has been gauged.
With the announcement of the dates of assembly elections, the opinion poll of IANS-Materize has come out, in which the opinion of the people of both the states has been taken regarding whose government will be formed in Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
Regional parties continue to dominate both the southern states, but new contenders seem to be challenging their supremacy. TVK led by actor-turned-politician Vijay seems to be attracting a large section of voters, while the BJP-led NDA in Kerala is expected to get double digit votes. However, this is not expected to have any significant impact on the election results.
How many seats can Vijay’s party get in Tamil Nadu?
According to the opinion poll, the AIADMK alliance seems to be getting the lead in Tamil Nadu and may get 114 to 127 seats, while the DMK alliance is expected to get 104 to 114 seats. Actor Vijay’s party TVK may get 6 to 12 seats. In vote share, AIADMK is expected to get around 39-40 percent votes and DMK is expected to get 37-38 percent votes.
Who can form the government in Kerala?
There is a tough contest between LDF and UDF in Kerala, but LDF seems to be getting a slight lead. According to the survey, LDF may get 61 to 71 seats and UDF may get 58 to 69 seats. The BJP led NDA is expected to get around 12-13 percent votes, but may get only around two seats.
BJP may get a strong lead in Bengal
Voting for 294 assembly seats of West Bengal will be held in two phases on 23rd and 29th April, while the results will be declared on 4th May. According to opinion polls, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC can return to power in the state for the fourth consecutive time. In the survey, TMC is expected to get 155 to 170 seats and 43-45 percent vote share, while BJP may get 100 to 115 seats and 41-43 percent vote share. Other parties are expected to get 5 to 7 seats and 13-15 percent votes.
Will BJP get an edge in Assam or will Congress become stronger?
According to the opinion poll, the BJP alliance seems to be getting a clear lead in Assam and it is expected to get 96 to 98 seats. Whereas Congress alliance can get 26 to 28 seats and others can get 2 to 8 seats. In vote share, NDA is estimated to get 43-44 percent, Congress alliance 39-40 percent and others 18-20 percent.
Also read: BJP released its first list for Kerala elections, fielded Rajeev Chandrashekhar and V Muraleedharan from this seat.
