Nifty Target 2026: Shadow of global crisis on stock market! Big cut in Nifty’s target, alarm bells for Indian market? – market

Brokerage Nomura has reduced the Nifty 50 target for December 2026 to 24,900 from 29,300, a cut of about 15%. Amidst the global economic and geopolitical circumstances, international brokerage Nomura has made its outlook on the Indian stock market more cautious. The brokerage has reduced the December 2026 target for Nifty 50 to 24,900, which was earlier 29,300.

According to the report, if tension in West Asia subsides and energy supply normalizes, the market may return to bullishness. This outlook is seen by the brokerage as a “bull case”.

The brokerage believes that ongoing tensions in West Asia and high crude oil prices may increase risks to the Indian economy and the market.

According to the brokerage, Brent crude has reached above $ 100 per barrel due to supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. This situation is considered serious for the global energy supply as 20-25% of the world’s oil and LNG trade passes through this route.

Analysts say that it may have a greater impact on countries like India because the country is heavily dependent on imports for crude oil, LNG and LPG.

The brokerage said that due to the sharp rise in oil prices in India –

Nomura estimates that FY27 corporate profit estimates may be cut by 10-15% if oil prices remain high.

On the other hand, another brokerage Citi has also reduced the December 2026 target of Nifty 50 from 28,500 to 27,000, i.e. a reduction of about 5%. The brokerage has also reduced the market’s forward valuation multiple to 19 times from 20 times. Citi noted that a three-month supply disruption due to the war risks a 20-30 bps decline in GDP. Inflation risk could rise by ~50-75 bps in FY27. The risk of fiscal deficit could rise to ~0.1% of GDP.

The rise in oil prices is affecting many supply chains in different sectors.

The brokerage has listed some important reasons-

According to Citi, if Brent crude remains around $ 100 per barrel, then there may be pressure on the prices of petrol and diesel in India. It is estimated that if oil is at $100, there may be a pressure to increase fuel prices by about ₹10 per liter, while if it is at $125, this increase may reach ₹25 per liter.

Effect already visible in the market

In the big fall of the market, both Nifty 50 and Nifty Bank have fallen by about 13% from their all-time high. Nifty 50 has fallen about 8% in the last two weeks. Such a sharp decline was seen only twice in the last decade – in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic and in 2022 at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Experts believe that the possibility of an additional decline of up to 5% in the market in the short term cannot be ruled out, especially in small and midcap stocks, the risk may be higher.

In which sectors better performance is expected?

According to the brokerage, some sectors may perform better in the current environment, such as-

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice in any way. ET NOW Swadesh recommends its readers and viewers to consult their financial advisors before taking any money-related decisions.