Nearly 12.7 crore Bangladeshi citizens are eligible to vote today in the high-stakes 13th Parliamentary election, which is expected to mark the country’s transition after the 2024 student-led uprising that ended Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year rule.
Voting will be held across 299 seats of the parliament today in a two-way contest between the mainstream Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and an alliance of student leaders and Islamist groups led by Jamat-e-Islami.
The voting, which begins at 7.30 am amid tight security, will test whether one of the first “Gen-Z” political movements can translate into electoral success, or whether voters hand power back to the establishment. The BNP, which governed Bangladesh before Hasina, is widely expected to win the most seats, though it remains unclear whether it can secure an outright majority.
“The BNP’s status as one of the two dynastic forces that have defined Bangladesh’s troubled post-independence politics underlines how precarious the reform momentum could prove,” Joseph Parkes, senior analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft told Bloomberg.
The Awami League, of which Sheikh Hasina is the President, is currently suspended and barred from contesting elections.
The new government will inherit an economy besieged by persistently high inflation and global trade upheavals that threaten the garment industry, which accounts for more than 80% of exports. It will also face mounting law-and-order risks that could derail its agenda, Bloomberg reported.
BNP vs Jamaat
Voting will close at 4:30 pm and the results are expected by Friday.
Polling will take place across 42,766 polling centres. While the BNP is widely seen as the front-runner, it faces stiff competition from the alliance between Jamaat-e-Islami — the nation’s largest Islamist party — and the student-led National Citizen Party.
Overall, 51 political parties and about 2,000 candidates are competing.
The winner will succeed the interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.
New Delhi Watching
New Delhi is closely watching the election not just as a neighbor but also because of the worsening ties between the two nations over the past few months.
Hasina’s ouster in August 2024 — and the exclusion of the Awami League from the current election — has, however, is expected to impact the India-Bangladesh ties which were considered friendly during Hasina’s 15-year tenure. Remember, Hasina is in exile in New Delhi.
The likely rise of the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, historically more critical of India, introduces uncertainty into bilateral ties.
Dhaka–New Delhi ties deteriorated soon after the ouster of the Hasina-led Awami League regime on 5 August 2024 and the subsequent violence against minorities, particularly the Hindu community.
In recent weeks, India has restricted tourist visas for Bangladeshis and also withdrew families of Indian diplomats from Bangladesh, citing security concerns ahead of the national elections.
New Delhi fears that Hasina’s removal from power has created space for groups that are hostile towards India, amid growing anti-India rhetoric and violence in Bangladesh, according to experts on South Asia politics.
One of the key factors in the post-Hasina era Heavy on voters’ minds is the rising political violence, attacks on Hindu minorities, and a collapse of law and order on the streets, news agency AP reported.
Attacks on minorities – including Bangladesh’s 13 million-strong Hindu population – have exacerbated tensions, Dr Chietigj Bajpayeesenior research fellow for South Asia, Asia Pacific Program at Chatham House wrote recently.
Heightened Security Arrangements
The Election Commission has made elaborate security arrangements, deploying nearly one million security personnel – the largest-ever in the country’s electoral history.
The interim government led by Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus has deployed nearly 1 million police personnel, including about 100,000 from the army to ensure peaceful polling.
“All of you should exercise your respective voting rights consciously…,” Yunus said in a message on Wednesday.
Yunus, who has promised to quickly transfer power to the elected government, urged the political parties, candidates and other concerned parties to maintain restraint, tolerance and democratic behavior on the polling day. “The countrymen, through this national election, will elect people’s representatives, who are competent, responsible and respectful of the people’s aspirations,” he said.
Mentioning that a free, fair, impartial and acceptable election is the foundation of a democratic state, he said the present interim government is fully committed to achieving this goal ultimately.
Hasina fled Bangladesh in August 2024 after a wave of student protests against her rule turned violent, and a crackdown by security forces left as many as 1,400 people dead, according to the United Nations. A tribunal in Bangladesh sentenced Hasina to death in absentia in November last year for crimes against humanity.
The countrymen, through this national election, will elect people’s representatives, who are competent, responsible and respectful of the people’s aspirations.
The 13th Parliamentary elections are being held simultaneously with a referendum on a complex 84-point reform package.
