Budget 2026: How is the condition of the stock market from the budget, the history of 10 years is like this – Market

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is going to present her 9th budget on 1 February 2026. Sitharaman took over as the full-time female Finance Minister of India in July 2019 and presented her first budget in the same year. Since then he has presented 8 consecutive budgets with an interim budget due in February 2024. If we look at the track record of the market, every year there is a big upheaval in the stock market before the budget.

Talking about 2025, the market closed flat. After the presentation of the budget on February 1, 2025, the Sensex closed at 77,505.96, while the Nifty fell below 23,500. BSE Sensex and Nifty50 opened positive on the Budget 2025 trading day, but later declined following global equity market concerns and the Finance Minister’s budget proposals. Sun Pharma was the top gainer, while railway shares also gained.

Last year, during the budget in 2024, huge fluctuations were seen in the stock market. As soon as the Finance Minister mentioned capital gains tax in his speech, selling intensified in the market. Sensex fell by almost 1200 points, while Nifty fell by more than 400 points. Although some recovery was seen by the end of trading, despite this both the indices closed in the red.

Even in the year 2023, the market had made a strong start on the budget day. At one time the Sensex had risen by more than 1200 points and crossed 60 thousand, but by the end of the day the initial gain was almost lost. Sensex closed with a slight rise, while Nifty closed with a slight fall. The Sensex rose more than 1,100 points during intraday trading, but closed 158.18 points higher at 59,708.08. In contrast, Nifty 50 fell 45.85 points to 17,616.30.

On the day of Budget in 2022, the market had shown good strength and the Sensex had closed with a rise of about 848 points, while the Nifty had registered a rise of 237 points. Sensex rose to 58,862.57 and Nifty 50 rose 237 points to 17,576.85. Growth was seen in sectors like Pharma, FMCG, Metal, IT and Realty.

The year 2021 was the best in terms of Budget Day, when the Sensex jumped by about 2300 points or about 5 percent and the Nifty also saw a strong rise of 647 points.

On the contrary, in the year 2020, the market had fallen the most on the budget day, when the Sensex fell by about 988 points and the Nifty fell by about 300 points.

If we talk about the period between 2015 and 2020, then during this period also the market movements kept changing continuously on the budget day. The market closed with a decline in the years 2016 and 2018, while in 2017 and 2019 investors saw slight gains. That means, overall, the market trend on Budget Day has been almost equal in the last ten years.

Data of last 10 years: When did the growth occur; When did the decline occur?

The budget that came after the Corona period had filled the market with enthusiasm. A historic rise of 5% was seen in Sensex. The year 2021 proved to be excellent for the stock market on Budget Day. Sensex closed at 48,600 with a sharp rise of 2300 points or 5 percent, while Nifty jumped 647 points to close at 14,281.

Biggest decline – year 2020

The market lost almost 1000 points due to changes like new tax slabs and dividend tax (DDT).

Why is there turmoil in the market before the budget?

If we look at the trend of the last few years, sharp fluctuations are being seen in Sensex and Nifty before the budget. Sometimes the market seems to be under pressure in intraday trading, while there are some days when both the indexes make a strong comeback. In such a situation, it is not easy to predict which side the stock market will take on the budget day.

Before the budget, foreign and domestic investors generally appear cautious. In anticipation of a big announcement, investors avoid making big bets before the budget and the trading volume reduces. Every now and then, some reports come that force investors to dive between hope and despair. In such a situation, the market starts moving on the basis of geo-political conditions and news and also shows reactions on that basis.

Post Budget Trends

Although there are sharp fluctuations in the markets on the budget day, the markets often find direction in the coming weeks thereafter. Usually, short-term volatility is seen in the markets after the presentation of the budget, but after that, after the post-budget analysis and a clear picture from the government on any apprehensive issue, the markets gradually start normalizing. Indices like mid-cap and pharma have seen the most stability during this period.