29 January 2026… Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said, ‘Trouble Mia Muslim in any way… If he faces trouble, he will leave Assam…’ There are only a few days left for the Assam assembly elections, in such a situation, this statement of CM Himanta seems to be working at the ground level. However, it started with delimitation in 2023. That means there were 34 Muslim dominated seats in the entire state, which had the power to overturn the results. The areas of those seats were changed, due to which now Muslims are left on only 20-22 seats. So will Muslim MLAs be eliminated in Assam? Let’s understand in the explainer…
Question 1: What is the current number of Muslim MLAs in Assam and will it decrease in 2026?
answer: The last assembly elections in India’s north-eastern state of Assam were held in 2021, in which a total of 31 Muslim MLAs were elected. Of these, 16 were from Congress and 15 were from All India United Democratic Front i.e. AIUDF. This number had the power to overturn the election results, but after just 5 years the situation changed.
Now the number of Muslim MLAs is expected to reduce to 22 in the elections to be held on April 9, 2026, because delimitation took place in Assam in 2023. If we understand in simple words, the scope or boundaries of 126 seats were changed. This will cause huge loss of votes to Muslim candidates. According to the 2011 census, the Muslim population in Assam is 34%, but the representation was already low and is going to decrease further. That means there is no big Muslim leader in Assam.
Question 2: What is delimitation and what happened to it in Assam?
answer: Due to delimitation in Assam, 126 assembly seats remained the same, but their boundaries were changed. The biggest impact was on Muslim dominated areas. Earlier 35 seats were in Muslim majority, now it has reduced to about 20. Hindu majority areas were added to many Muslim majority areas, due to which the influence of Muslim votes got scattered.
- In Barpeta district, Muslim dominated 8 seats reduced to 6.
- The 15 seats of Barak Valley were reduced to 13.
- The seats of Goalpara West became reserved for ST, where earlier Muslim MLAs used to win.
- Muslim areas like Janiya, Baghbar and Chenga were merged with Hindu majority areas.
- Dhubri and Bilasipara, two Muslim dominated seats, were merged into one.
Experts are calling it ‘Gerrymandering’ (manipulation of seats). According to Al Jazeera’s report, Muslim votes were dispersed by combining 35 Muslim-dominated seats with Hindu-dominated areas. CPI(M) state secretary Suprakash Talukdar said, ‘Hindu areas were added to Muslim seats and Muslim voters were divided into Hindu-dominated areas.’
Question 3: What will be the effect of this change?
answer: Political expert Rashid Kidwai believes that the ‘political footprint’ of Muslim voters has reduced by about 30%. Earlier Muslims were decisive on 30-35 seats, now only on 20-22. Muslim representation was less than before, now it will decrease further. If Muslim MLAs are reduced to 22, their collective strength will further weaken.
For a long time, no strong, respected leader has emerged among the Muslims of Assam (especially those of Miyan or Bengali origin). AIUDF had leaders like Badruddin Ajmal till the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, but he lost his seat. Now there is neither any new face who can represent the entire community, nor are the parties supporting Muslim leaders.
Rashid Kidwai said, ‘There are 31 Muslim MLAs, but they are limited to their respective constituencies. No collective voice is raised on major issues like displacement, pushback and deletion of names from the voter list. Muslim MLAs of Congress also remain silent because they fear that speaking out will reduce votes. outcome? The Muslim community is stuck in ‘political no-man’s land’.
Question 4: What is BJP’s strategy and fear of Miyan Muslims?
answer: CM Himanta Biswa Sarma has repeatedly said, ‘No need for Mia vote.’ That means BJP is openly opposing the Muslim population. CM Sarma also said, ‘Miya, harass Muslims in any way. If they are upset then they will leave Assam. In March 2026, in Barpeta, he had said, ‘Last time I broke some legs, this time I will break the spine.’
It is clear from this that this time BJP has not fielded a single Muslim candidate on 89 seats. BJP has put the burden of its ‘Muslim vote’ on its ally AGP. AGP has fielded 13 Muslim candidates on 26 seats. With this, BJP’s Hindutva image will remain intact. AGP spokesperson Kasturi Boruah said, ‘BJP is only against infiltrators and encroachment, not against Bengali Muslims.’
Whereas in 2021, Congress-AIUDF alliance had won 31 Muslim MLAs, but this time there is no alliance. Congress is dependent on Muslim votes but is silent on the issues. AIUDF is fighting alone, but its popularity has decreased. The chances of Muslim candidates are also decreasing due to division of opposition votes.
Question 5: So will the Muslim MLAs be wiped out from Assam?
answer: No, the card of Muslim MLAs from Assam will not be clean at all. Rashid Kidwai says, ‘In the 2026 elections, the number of Muslim MLAs is likely to reduce from 31 to around 20-23 or at most it can be 22. There is no possibility of it being completely eliminated (zero).
