A passenger fare hike implemented in late December 2025 is seen as a structural positive for Indian Railways’ internal resource generation, improving the backdrop for continued investment in rolling stock, safety, and station redevelopment.
Market commentary flags the possibility of a 10-12% increase in railway capex, potentially taking the outlay to around ₹2.76 trillion, with explicit focus on:
• Scaling up Vande Bharat sleeper trains (300-400 units indicated in street expectations).
• Higher allocation for Kavach automatic train protection and other safety systems.
• Station redevelopment, dedicated freight corridors, signaling and track doubling.
In the weeks before the budget, multiple railway stocks have surged 10-30%, reflecting both thematic buying and company-specific triggers such as promoter stake hikes and new business wins. Commentary also notes that, while “pre-Budget railway rallies” are now a recurring pattern, future performance will depend on execution, margin discipline, and timely project commissioning rather than headline allocations alone.
Prominent railway and rail-ecosystem stocks:
• Indian Railway Finance Corp. Ltd (IRFC)
• Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd (RVNL)
• Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corp. Ltd (IRCTC)
• RailTel Corporation of India Ltd
• RITES Ltd
• Jupiter Wagons Ltd
• Titagarh Rail Systems Ltd
• BEML Ltd
These counters are central to themes like coach and wagon manufacturing, rail consultancy, EPC, station and signaling projects, telecom/digital backbone, and financing the railway capex pipeline.
Let’s review their performance over the last six months for us to get a perspective on how they are stacked up with a simple relative strength comparison that can assist in identifying some winners as they are getting set for the triggers that can emanate from the budget.
Over the past six months (July 2025 to January 2026), RailTel Corporation of India has emerged as the strongest performer among railway stocks, registering an estimated 20% gain as its share price climbed from around ₹310 ₹372. This outperformance stands in stark contrast to the broader sector, which faced notable declines following post-budget corrections.
Most railway stocks struggled during this period, with Jupiter Wagons experiencing the steepest fall, plunging approximately 34%. RailTel’s resilience highlights its relative strength amid sector-wide weakness, positioning it as a standout in an otherwise challenging landscape for railway-related equities.
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However, after adding some additional set of validations, we have decided to select some stocks that have stood the test of time to demonstrate a possible recovery.
RVNL Cmp ₹331.30
Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd (RVNL), a Navratna PSU under India’s ministry of railways, specializes in executing large-scale rail infrastructure projects, including new lines, doubling, electrification, metros, and bridges. Established in 2003, it plays a pivotal role in modernizing India’s rail network, with operations spanning domestic and international projects.
RVNL boasts a massive order book of ~ ₹90,000- ₹1,00,000 crore as of late 2025, ensuring 4+ years of visibility— ₹43,000 crore from legacy rail works, and the rest diversified. FY25 inflows hit ₹1,40,000 crore. Recent wins include ₹144 crore OHE upgrade from South Central Railway (October 2025, 18 months execution), ₹165 crore bridge from North Eastern Railway (December 2025), and ₹87.55 crore video surveillance in LHB coaches from South Eastern Railway (January 2026, 10 months). There has been no change in the promoter holding (72.84% by the President of India).
The strong metrics above showcase RVNL’s strength and capability that is helping it sustain the constant market gyrations and achieve its targets. However, moving to the chart setup, we find that the prices have clearly identified certain important pressure points that it is able to hold on and aiming for some recovery.
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From the chart above, we can note that the last few instances of breaching some important value area support around 305-310 that continues (shown in black arrow) to generate some rebound. An interesting point here is that, unlike the previous rebounds from a similar level, the revival in DI lines seen here is more encouraging, inviting us to go long.
Considering the future course of action, one should look at capturing resistance zones around 500 as the rounding pattern at a strong set of support augurs well for the prices. Keeping a risk mitigation level at 307, look for some upside in the next 6 months post-budget.
RVNL’s execution prowess and rail capex focus position it for recovery, though election delays and land issues tempered FY26 starts. With the Budget 2026 infra push, expect sustained inflows, but monitor Q3 results (trading window closed 1 January).
TITAGARH RAIL SYSTEMS Cmp ₹790.20
Titagarh Rail Systems Ltd, a leading Indian rolling stock manufacturer, designs, builds, and supplies wagons, coaches, metros, and maintenance vehicles for Indian Railways and exports. Formerly Titagarh Wagons, it diversified into passenger rolling stock through acquisitions such as Titagarh Wagons & Ciermo (2018) and entered shipbuilding (now demerged). Headquartered in Kolkata, it operates plants in Titagarh, Uttarpara, and Sanand, with a growing international presence in Africa and Bangladesh.
The current order backlog for Titagarh is at 9,047 wagons, which provides earnings visibility to Titagarh for the next four quarters. While inflows were slow in the first half, the management is hopeful that the flows will pick up from the fourth quarter of the current fiscal year or the first quarter of next year.
Moving to the charts, we note that Titagarh Rail Systems has registered a multi-month breakout above a falling trendline near the ₹850 level and has closed decisively above it. This breakout was supported by higher-than-average volumes, strengthening the bullish view. After its spectacular run in 2023 – 2024, the prices came to rest, and the steady profit booking that emerged combined with the stock market meltdown saw the prices quickly decline towards an important value area region around 745 that has managed to hold the levels for the entire 2025.
The levels of 745 also happened to be a strong Fibonacci 61.8% support that has not been breached, clearly indicating that the trends ahead could prove to be a very important level in the coming days. While an attempt is being made to rebound, we can note that the momentum represented by ADX/DMI has shown a reversion to the ideal point for a revival. As prices are now coiling on a higher timeframe chart, we can look at the event as a trigger that can assist in some upward move and a change in fortune for the counter.
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With the budget around the corner and a promise that is being expected to materialize one should track this railway stock that is building up some encouraging newsflow, and the movement can carry it towards a region of 1,250 within the next six months if after the budget the levels of 690 is not given up.
Titagarh’s diversified portfolio (freight 60%, passenger 40%) aligns with the Budget 2026’s ₹2.5 trillion rail capex, targeting mechanization and Vande Bharat expansion. Challenges like supply chain resolved; expect Q3 FY26 rebound with 800+ wagon/month output. Promoter holding stable; demerger unlocks value. Strong execution could drive 15-20% revenue CAGR ahead.
Conclusion
Overall, the market sentiment remains poised for some steady moves, however, we need to tread these sectors carefully. In this edition, we have spoken about two promising candidates from the railway sector. As expectations rise from the budget, this sector will continue to be actively tracked by the investors.
Raja Venkatraman is co-founder, NeoTrader. His SEBI-registered research analyst registration no. isINH000016223.
Investments in securities are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
