Growth data to gold, silver prices: Top five triggers for Indian stock market this week

Stock market next week: The Indian stock market posted solid gains on Friday, January 2, driven by broad-based buying across sectors amid rising optimism ahead of the Q3 earnings season.

The Sensex surged 573 points, or 0.67%, to close at 85,762.01. The Nifty 50 scaled an intraday all-time high of 26,340 before trimming gains to end at a record closing level of 26,328.55, up 182 points, or 0.70%. Meanwhile, the BSE Midcap index gained 0.97%, and the Smallcap index rose 0.79%.

” Indian equities began the New Year on a strong note, gaining around 1% and decisively breaking out of a five-week consolidation phase. While the start of the week was slightly subdued amid mixed cues, a sharp rebound in the final sessions enabled benchmark indices to close near the week’s highs. The Nifty scaled fresh record levels to settle at 26,328.55. At the same time, the Sensex advanced 0.85%. to 85,762.01, reflecting renewed risk appetite and improving confidence in the domestic growth outlook,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

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Stock Market Outlook next week

On the market outlook in the coming week, Ponmudi R, CEO – Enrich Money, said that the Indian equities are expected to retain an upward bias, underpinned by strong domestic fundamentals, steady domestic institutional inflows, and expectations of healthy corporate earnings growth.

“Looking ahead, market focus is set to shift toward the Q3 earnings season, with traders likely to build positions selectively ahead of results from key index heavyweights. Beyond earnings expectations, high-frequency indicators tracking industrial activity will be closely monitored to confirm the resilience and durability of the broader economic recovery. Domestically, S&P Global Services and Composite PMI data will provide further insights into business momentum and employment trends, with manufacturing activity expected to remain supportive amid policy tailwinds and improving rural demand,” Ponmudi added.

Top triggers for the Indian stock market

growth data

Indian investors will track the final readings of the HSBC Services PMI and Composite PMI, followed by FY GDP growth data. Bank loan growth, deposit growth, and foreign exchange reserves data will offer insights into credit demand and liquidity conditions.

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US attacks Venezuela

In a major development, US forces have carried out military strikes on Venezuela, according to reports from CBS News and Fox News. AFP also confirmed the attack, citing unnamed Trump administration officials who told US media that American troops were involved. US President Donald Trump later acknowledged the strikes in a post on his social media platform, Truth Social.

US key economic data

Globally, attention will remain on US non-farm payrolls and unemployment data, which could shape expectations around the Federal Reserve’s rate path and overall risk appetite.

“While short-term volatility around global data releases cannot be ruled out, the underlying market structure remains firmly positive, encouraging a selectively optimistic approach as 2026 unfolds,” Ponmudi said.

metal price

Gold traded higher on Friday, posting gains of more than 1,000 to settle around 1,36,900 on the MCX, while Comex gold jumped nearly $70 to hover close to $4,385.

Meanwhile, COMEX Silver rebounded sharply toward $71.015 per ounce, extending its recovery amid renewed industrial and investment demand. MCX Silver futures advanced to around 236,316 per kg, extending the sharp rally amid tight global physical supply.

“Looking ahead, the fundamental outlook for precious metals remains constructive. Gold is expected to deliver steady, albeit moderate, gains, with potential to approach $5,000 amid easing monetary conditions, continued ETF inflows, and heightened global risk-hedging demand. Silver’s long-term structure appears even stronger, supported by persistent supply deficits and accelerating demand from solar, EV, AI, and electronics sectors, although Near-term volatility from dollar strength cannot be ruled out,” said Ponmudi.

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Rupee vs dollar

The Indian rupee weakened past the 90 level on Friday, ending the session 22 paise lower at 90.20 against the US dollar, pressured by weak macroeconomic data and a stronger dollar in global markets.

In the interbank forex market, the domestic currency opened at 89.95 per dollar and fluctuated between an intraday high of 89.92 and a low of 90.25. By the close of trading, the rupee was quoted at 90.20 against the greenback, marking a 22-paise decline from its previous close.

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

According to Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking, the Nifty has decisively moved above the 26,200 zone and closed at record highs, confirming the end of the five-week consolidation phase.

“Immediate support is placed around 26,000, with a stronger base at 25,700. On the upside, a sustained move above 26,300 could pave the way for a rise toward the 26,500–26,700 zone initially, and potentially toward the 27,000 mark,” Mishra said.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty posted its first-ever close above lifetime highs at 60,150.95, remaining firmly within its rising channel and above key moving averages.

“Holding above the 59,800–60,000 zone keeps the near-term outlook positive, with upside potential toward 60,500–61,000, and an extension toward 62,000 supported by improving credit growth expectations and favorable liquidity conditions. A dip below 59,500 could trigger short-term consolidation; however, the primary trend continues to remain decisively upward,” said. Ponmudi of Enrich Money.

Sensex

Sensex closed at 85,762.01, consolidating just below its all-time highs. According to Ponmudi, compared to Nifty and Bank Nifty, the index has been relatively slower to break out, though underlying support from heavyweight banking and metal stocks remains strong.

“The index continues to attract buying interest in the 85,200–85,500 support band. A convincing breakout above 86,000 could accelerate momentum, opening the door for a move towards 86,500–87,500 in the coming weeks,” he added.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. Please consult with an investment advisor before making any investment decisions.

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