Following a short pause in the primary market, multiple IPOs are set to make their way to Dalal Street in the coming months. Today (February 11), the bidding for both the Fractal Analytics IPO and the Aye Finance IPO will be closing, though interest in these offerings seems to be limited.
On the final day, the Fractal Analytics IPO has been fully subscribed, while the Aye Finance IPO continues to struggle to gain traction. Analysts hold a consistently negative perspective on the IPO market for 2026.
They suggest that the market has lost its patience for chaos; Blatant private equity offloading and overly exit-focused IPOs are no longer sustainable. Significant losses have occurred in the previous cycle for both retail and institutional investors, resulting in a behavioral shift.
Let’s take a look at the gray market premium (GMP) trends for the ongoing IPOs:
IPO GMPs
Aye Finance IPO GMP today was ₹0, which meant shares were trading at their issue price of ₹129 with no premium or discount in the gray market, according to investorgain.com.
Following the gray market activities over the past week, Aye Finance IPO GMP is trending downward and is anticipated to decrease further. The minimum GMP is ₹0.00, and the maximum is ₹5.
The offering, valued at ₹1,010 crore, includes a new equity issuance of ₹710 crore alongside a ₹300 crore share divestment by current investors such as Alpha Wave India, MAJ Invest Financial Inclusion Fund, CapitalG (linked to Alphabet), LGT Capital, and Vikram Jetley.
Aye Finance IPO price band has been set between ₹122 ₹129 per equity share, with a face value of ₹2.
Fractal Analytics IPO GMP is ₹2.5. Considering the upper end of the IPO price band and the current premium in the gray market, the estimated listing price of Fractal Analytics shares is indicated as ₹902.5 apiece, which is 0.28% higher than the IPO price of ₹900.
Based on the gray market trends from the past 9 sessions, the current GMP of ₹2.50 is indicating a downward trend. The minimum GMP recorded is ₹2.50 whereas the maximum GMP observed is ₹180.
The offering, estimated at ₹2,834 crore, comprises a new share issue totaling ₹1,023.5 crore, in addition to an Offer-For-Sale (OFS) segment valued at ₹₹1,810.4 crore.
Fractal Analytics IPO opened for subscription on Monday, February 9, and closes on Wednesday, February 11. Fractal Analytics IPO price band has been fixed in the range of ₹857 to ₹900 per equity share of face value of Re 1.
IPO Review
As per Swastika InvestmartAye Finance Limited is a non-banking financial institution (NBFC) that offers business loans to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). The fundamentals look strong to the brokerage, with the company demonstrating consistent growth in both revenue and profits.
“The company suggests a P/E ratio of approximately 14x based on FY25 earnings, which is reasonably valued in comparison to some of its listed NBFC competitors. In summary, the IPO is a good fit for long-term investors who have confidence in the growth of MSME lending and possess a moderate risk tolerance for NBFC credit,” the brokerage opined.
As per Stoxbox by BP Equitiesthe company continues to maintain solid capital reserves, with the Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets Ratio (CRAR) rising to 34.9% in FY25, allowing for sufficient capacity for additional growth. The composition of the portfolio remains well-balanced, with fixed-rate loans accounting for 65% and floating-rate loans for 35% as of FY25, which supports margin stability.
Net interest income (NII) increased by 42.3% during the FY2024-25 period, reaching Rs. 699 crores, while the net profit surged to Rs. 175 crores, effectively doubling during the same timeframe, noted the brokerage house.
Stoxbox by BP Equities believes that at the maximum price point of ₹129 per share, the offering is assessed at a P/B ratio of 1.84x based on earnings for FY25. This valuation is largely consistent with that of its industry counterparts. Considering its scalable business model, growing distribution network, and enhancing earnings path, a “Subscribe” rating for the offering is advised by the brokerage.
SBICAP Securities noted that Fractal Analytics functions within a specialized area of Data Analytics, utilizing AI that is developed through both internal research and development as well as external models. “The company maintains a strong presence in its four key industries, serving leading multinational corporations, with an average client relationship duration of over 8 years among its top ten clients. At the upper price band of ₹900, the issue is assessed at a FY25 P/E ratio of 78.9x based on the post-issue capitalisation,” the brokerage said.
As per Lakshmishree Investment & Securitiesthe company’s financial growth is demonstrating significant momentum, with operational revenue increasing by 25.90% to achieve ₹2,765.40 crore in FY 2025. Following a transitional FY 2024, Fractal successfully returned to profitability, reporting a profit for the year of ₹220.6 crore and enhancing its Adjusted PAT Margin to 12.6%. This recovery is bolstered by a Net Revenue Retention rate of 114% and a strengthened presence in the enterprise sector, featuring 4 clients that each contribute over US$20 million annually.
“While the emergence of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) poses a long-term disruptive risk to traditional AI business models, Fractal’s dominant position in the analytics niche suggest a strong competitive strength and deep-rooted client trust. As the company continues to capitalize on the global demand for enterprise-grade AI, its ability to maintain high margins and operational leverage, We recommend a ‘SUBSCRIBE’ rating for long-term investors,” advised the brokerage.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts and broking companies, not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decision.
