After 18 months of sluggishness, will the market give returns of up to 200%? (Image/AI)
Nifty Return Analysis:Investing in the stock market can be like a roller-coaster ride. Investors often get nervous when the market remains at one place for weeks or months or shows a slight decline. This is called ‘time correction’ or ‘stagnation’. This data from Edelweiss Mutual Fund tells a very interesting story.
From this chart and anyway we can understand that, whenever Nifty has been sluggish for about 18 months or has given -1% to 2%, the immediately following 1 year and 3 years have proved to be golden periods for investors. That is, the silence of the market is indicating bumper returns in the coming time.
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Now even in the present times, amid the Middle East tension, heavy selling is being seen in the Indian stock market. There is a fear in the minds of investors that their money might get lost, due to which they are withdrawing their money. But if you look at the history, you will understand that after the selloff, the market has given returns up to 200%. If we look at the chart above, a pattern is clearly visible. When the market sleeps for 18 months, it runs very fast after waking up.
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After the fall, Nifty gave huge returns of up to 248%
Between 2001 and 2003, when the 18 month return was around 1.9%, in the next 3 years Nifty gave a whopping 248% return. Similarly, even after the slow phase of 2011 and 2014, the market showed a recovery of 45% to 60% in the next 36 months.
Data from 30 September 2024 to 28 February 2026 is given at the end of the chart. During this period, the return for 18 months has been only 2.31%. History has shown that whenever returns have been this low, the next one year (Next 12M) and next three years (Next 36M) have been excellent on average.
What should investors do now? (Best Investing Angle)
This data gives us the perspective to think beyond the short term.
Patience is the greatest asset
The red and yellow boxes on the chart show that many people took out their money out of fear during the recession. But those who persisted (as the green boxes show), earned returns ranging from 80% to 200%. If your portfolio is sluggish right now, it is not time to ‘exit’ but to ‘wait’.
Continue SIP
When the market remains stable for 18 months, your SIP gives you the opportunity to buy more ‘units’ at lower levels. These units become the basis of wealth creation in the next 3 years.
history repeats itself
This lull in 2026 is a sign that the market is building a base for its next big jump. Given ‘?’ in the chart. The answer lies in the data of the last 20 years—which has every chance of yielding positive and huge returns.
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