The equity shares of One 97 Communications, the parent company of Paytm, crashed 10% on Friday, resuming its downward trend, amid heavy selling pressure. Paytm shares declined as much as 9.99% to ₹1,134.85 a piece on the BSE.
Paytm stock price has fallen in four out of the last five trading sessions.
The sharp fall in Paytm share price today comes after reports that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may not extend the Payment Infrastructure Development Fund (PIDF) scheme after December 2025.
The PIDF is an RBI initiative aimed at strengthening digital payment infrastructure in underserved regions by subsidizing the deployment of Point-of-Sale (PoS) devices and QR codes.
However, there has been no official communication on whether the scheme will be extended beyond its current tenure.
Analysts note that the discontinuation of the PIDF could result in an estimated annualized operating revenue loss of around ₹200 crore for Paytm, which currently contributes directly to its EBITDA.
In a clarification issued to stock exchanges, Paytm said that the amount of incentive was ₹128 crores for the six months ended September 30, 2025. At the present time, there is no announcement by the RBI or other authorities on extension or replacement of this Scheme.
“In the scenario that the current Scheme is not extended or replaced, we expect to significantly offset the impact over time through a combination of higher revenues and more targeted sales efforts,” One 97 Communications said.
Investec assigns ‘Buy’ on Paytm
Brokerage firm Investec has initiated coverage on Paytm shares with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price. ₹1,550 per share, implying a potential upside of 23% from Thursday’s closing price.
Paytm operates as an intermediary across several structurally oligopolistic markets – UPI P2M, payment gateway, soundbox devices, and merchant loan distribution – where just 2–3 players dominate.
Coupled with Paytm’s deep tech capabilities and embedded merchant relationships, Investec believes this structure supports long-term pricing power and imposes high switching costs.
“With most of its merchant acquisition already in place and a digital-first model, Paytm enjoys substantial operating leverage. We forecast 23% net revenue CAGR over FY26-28E with EBITDA margins (as % of net revenue) expanding to 24% by FY28E (from 8% in 1H26), driven by scale efficiencies and improving contribution from higher-margin credit-adjacent businesses,” Invest saidec.
Key risks, according to Investec are unseen regulatory developments, increased competitive intensity among incumbents and asset quality pressures in merchant/consumer loans.
Technical View
One97 Communications has come under renewed pressure after adverse RBI developments, with share price struggling to reclaim the critical ₹1,271 zone.
“This level, which earlier acted as a major support, has now been decisively broken, signaling structural weakness rather than temporary volatility. Selling pressure remains persistent, and daily as well as weekly charts show lower highs intact, reinforcing bearish control. Volumes during declines indicate active liquidation rather than passive drift. With the breakdown confirmed, the next logical downside magnet lies near the prior swing low around ₹1,097, where some demand may attempt to emerge,” said Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments.
According to him, until Paytm share price regains and sustains above. ₹1,271 with volume support, risk–reward stays skewed to the downside, and any interim bounce should be viewed as corrective.
“The broader structure remains damaged, keeping downside continuation as the higher probability outcome,” Jain said.
Paytm Share Price History
Paytm share price has fallen 12% in one month and 8% in three months. The fintech stock has risen 11% in six months and has jumped 40% in one year. Paytm share price has delivered multibagger returns of 118% over the past three years.
However, Paytm share price still trades more than 45% below its IPO price of ₹2,150 per share.
At 12:50 PM, Paytm share price was trading 6.14% lower at ₹1,183.50 a piece on the BSE.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
