Contrary to fears that a US strike on Venezuela would dent stock market sentiment, major Asian markets rallied sharply on Monday. Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi jumped more than 3%, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose over 1%.
The Indian stock market, however, traded in a narrow range.
The Sensex opened at 85,640.05 against its previous close of 85,762.01 and touched an intraday high and low of 85,883.50 and 85,516.75, respectively. The Nifty started the day at 26,333.70 against its previous close of 26,328.55 and touched its record high of 26,373.20 and an intraday low of 26,263.60.
Around 11 am, the Sensex was 55 points, or 0.06%, up at 85,816.70, while the Nifty 50 was 29 points, or 0.11%, up at 26,357.80.
Why is the stock market defying the Venezuela crisis?
So far, the Venezuela saga has not started impacting the Indian stock market sentiment as crude oil prices remain low. Benchmark Brent Crude traded 0.30% lower at $60.57 per barrel around 11 am. Amid low volatility in crude oil prices, investors are focusing on domestic triggers, such as the upcoming Q3 earnings season and the Union Budget 2026.
“Markets are now focusing more on the domestic factors, like earnings updates, budget discussion and domestic macros, instead of the global cues, so it seems immune to global factors,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking.
However, Mishra added that further escalation of geopolitical tensions may dent the sentiment, especially if crude signals a sharp rebound or global markets witness a sustained decline.
VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, pointed out that since the market is at an all-time high, the momentum is with the bulls.
Vijayakumar believes the Venezuelan crisis, though a major geopolitical event, is unlikely to impact the global economy and markets.
“The long-term implication of the crisis for crude is bearish. This is positive for India. Also, there are hopes of a turnaround in corporate earnings this year,” said Vijayakumar.
Focus on earnings, India-US trade deal
While geopolitical factors will remain one of the most decisive factors for the Indian stock market, the market is currently focusing on the Q3 results amid expectations of healthy earnings growth. Investors also await further clarity on the India-US trade deal.
Experts say that until the market observes positive developments on these two fronts, it may remain rangebound.
After several quarters of weak earnings, hopes for healthy earnings growth have grown stronger due to low base, GST reforms, monetary policy easing and increased government capex.
Ajay Menon, MD and CEO of Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL), believes Nifty earnings may grow by 12% and 15% YoY in FY26 and FY27, respectively.
However, the elusive India-US trade deal remains a key concern. According to news agency Reuters, US President Donald Trump has warned that Washington can raise tariffs on India due to Russian oil purchases.
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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
