Buy or sell stocks: Indian stock markets staged a measured rebound on Monday after witnessing their sharpest Budget-day fall in six years during Sunday’s special trading session. The Nifty 50 and Sensex recovered nearly 0.4% in early trade on February 2, indicating that part of the initial shock triggered by the Union Budget’s changes to Securities Transactions Tax (STT) on F&O trades was beginning to settle.
The market had slumped close to 2% a day earlier after the Budget proposed a steep hike in STT on derivatives. Futures STT was increased to 0.05% from 0.02%, while options STT was raised to 0.15% from 0.10/0.125%. The sharp rise in trading costs weighed heavily on F&O-focused counters and brokerage stocks, dragging the broader indices lower as traders reassessed the profitability of high-frequency derivatives activity.
VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, said, “Yesterday’s market selloff resulting in 495 point crash in Nifty was a knee jerk reaction to the sharp increase in STT on F&O trades. This was not a revenue raising measure, but a decision to discourage retail traders from complex F&O trading, in which 92% of them were losing money.”
He added that while the decision dented near-term sentiment, the broader Budget framework remained growth-oriented with fiscal prudence, and earnings recovery could gradually become the dominant market theme.
Technical Stock Picks
Amid the volatility following the Budget, Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Investments has highlighted three stocks showing resilient technical structures despite broader weakness. According to him, these counters are displaying strong support zones, improving momentum indicators, and favorable risk-reward setups.
KAYNES | CMP: 3,560 | SL: 3,450 | Target: 3,800/4,000
Kaynes Technology continues to trade in a downtrend after breaking below the 4,000–4,100 zone and slipping to around 3,560. The structure still reflects lower highs and lower lows, with the next downside reference near 3,200. However, the weekly chart has formed a bullish reversal candle, and the MACD histogram indicates exhaustion, suggesting that selling pressure may be easing and a technical bounce is possible.
Sentiment may improve after the Union Budget 2026 increased the outlay for the Electronics Components Manufacturing Scheme to ₹40,000 crore and introduced India Semiconductor Mission 2.0, signaling a long-term strategic push for the electronics sector rather than a one-time incentive.
• Bias: Tactical positive for a rebound towards 3,800–4,000 (supply zone).
• Invalidation: A daily close back below ~3,450–3,480 would negate the bounce and re open 3,200.
Medium term: Trend repair needs a weekly close above 4,000–4,100 with improving breadth/volume; otherwise, rallies may be sold into until a higher swing low forms Consider buy on dips only while the weekly reversal holds; keep tight stops given the broader down trend.
ARVIND | CMP: 330 | SL: 312 | Target: 360-375
Arvind Ltd. is attempting a base near 330 after a strong rebound, forming higher lows within a multi month range of 305–347. A decisive close above 347 would confirm a range breakout and open up 360–375, while failure near this zone would keep the stock rotational. On the downside, 318–312 remains the immediate support area, followed by a stronger base near 305–297. Momentum is improving, with the RSI rising above 50 into the 60s and the MACD turning up with a contracting negative histogram, indicating early momentum repair and a developing base.
The technical setup is supported by favorable policy tailwinds from the Union Budget 2026, which announced a five part, sector wide push for textiles covering the National Fiber Scheme, Textile Expansion & Employment Scheme, National Handloom & Handicraft Programme, Text ECON initiative, and SAMARTH 2.0 for skill development. These measures aim to modernize textile clusters, strengthen supply chains, and upgrade workforce capabilities, providing structural medium term support for integrated textile players like Arvind and reinforcing the stock’s constructive bias on confirmed breakouts.
Short-term view:
• Bias: Constructive while above 318–312; add on breakout above 347 for 360/375.
• Invalidation: Daily close below 312 shifts bias back to range bound/weak towards 305–297.
RAYMOND | CMP: 393 | SL: 370 | Target: 440-470
Raymond is indicating early signs of a short-term recovery after a steep corrective phase. On the weekly chart, the stock has formed an inverted hammer, a typical bullish reversal pattern after a decline, reflecting rejection of lower levels and fresh buying interest. This suggests that downside pressure may be easing, even though the broader trend is still corrective.
Momentum indicators reinforce this outlook. The MACD histogram shows fading negative bars, signaling weakening selling pressure and the potential for a short-term bounce. Although the MACD line remains below the signal line, the improving histogram points to initial stabilization. The RSI is still subdued but attempting to form a base, aligning with the possibility of a relief rally rather than a full trend reversal.
Short term view:
• Bias: Constructive while above 380–370; add on a breakout above 420–440 for 470–500.
• Invalidation: A daily close below 370 shifts the bias back to corrective/weak, exposing 350–330 on the downside.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
