2026 is going to be a year of big change in Rajya Sabha. Around 72 to 75 seats are getting vacant throughout the year, which will happen due to retirement in April, June, July and November. Currently in February 2026, out of total 245 seats in Rajya Sabha, BJP has 103, Congress has 27, Trinamool Congress (TMC) has 12, AAP has 10, DMK has 10, BJD has 7, YSRCP has 5 and AIADMK has 7 seats. Nominees are 7 and total NDA strength is around 121, while INDIA block has 80 seats. But this figure is going to change significantly due to the coming elections.
NDA is expected to gain 7 to 9 seats, due to which their strength can reach 145. At the same time, INDIA block may lose 5 seats, which will bring their number to around 75.
On which 37 seats of Rajya Sabha will elections be held?
First of all, on March 16, 2026, elections are being held for 37 seats, which are from 10 states. 7 from Maharashtra, 4 from Odisha, 6 from Tamil Nadu, 5 from West Bengal, 3 from Assam, 5 from Bihar, 2 from Chhattisgarh, 2 from Haryana, 1 from Himachal Pradesh and 2 from Telangana. These seats are becoming vacant in April. Another 35-38 seats will be included in the remaining elections of the year, which are from a total of 22 states, such as 10 from Uttar Pradesh, 4 from Karnataka, 4 from Gujarat, 4 from Andhra Pradesh.
Where will BJP benefit?
The recent assembly elections have strengthened the position of NDA. For example, NDA has 228 MLAs in Maharashtra (BJP 131, Shiv Sena-Shinde 57, NCP-Ajit 40), which can win 4-5 out of 7 seats, i.e. more than before. NDA may get one extra seat in Bihar, where earlier there were 3, now 4. 3 gains in Andhra Pradesh, 1 in Gujarat, 2 in Odisha, 1 in Rajasthan. These gains come from assembly strength, like NDA won 2025 elections in Maharashtra, NDA is strong in Bihar, BJP in Haryana, BJP in Jharkhand. However, there may be loss of 1 seat each in Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh.
What is the complete mathematics of the strength of the Assembly in Rajya Sabha seats?
Members (MPs) of the Rajya Sabha are elected by the voting of the elected MLAs of the state assembly. That is, which party will be stronger at the center depends on how many MLAs that party has in the assembly of each state. If your party’s strength increases in the Assembly, your seats in the Rajya Sabha also increase.
Rajya Sabha seats are decided in every state. Like 19 seats from Maharashtra, but elections are held on some seats every year, when the old members retire. To win an election, every candidate needs a certain number of votes, which is called ‘quota’.
How to calculate this quota?
The formula is very simple: Quota = (Total MLAs) / (Seats +1) +1.
The members of Rajya Sabha choose the elected members of the Legislative Assembly, hence the quota is decided by the number of MLAs in each state. This is so that votes for each seat are distributed equally and a party can win more seats with more votes. If a candidate gets even one vote less than the quota, he loses.
Understand from the example of Bihar: There are a total of 243 MLAs in Bihar and elections are to be held on 5 seats. Quota: 243 ÷ (5 + 1 = 6) = 40.5, then +1 = 41.5, but rounding to 42 votes per seat. NDA has 202 MLAs, so 202 ÷ 42 ≈ 4.81 i.e. 4 seats. Earlier the strength of NDA was less, so 120 ÷ 42 ≈ 2.85 i.e. only 2-3 seats. But NDA made a strong hold in Bihar in the recent elections, hence there will be a gain in Rajya Sabha. If any MLA cross-votes or supports independent, then NDA can also get the 5th seat.
Which parties will be at loss or gain?
Congress and INDIA block will suffer the most as 5 to 6 seats may be reduced. Like Congress may lose 1 seat in Gujarat, Trinamool may lose in West Bengal, Congress may lose 1 seat in Karnataka. BJD 1-2 less in Odisha, YSRCP 3 less in Andhra, CPI(M) 1 less than West Bengal. Wherever these parties become weak in the assembly, they will lose seats.
At the same time, the parties that benefit can be from the NDA party. In these, BJP can gain 7-9 seats i.e. total NDA can reach 145. Congress may gain 1-2 extra seats in DMK Tamil Nadu, but overall INDIA alliance will remain down.
Which big leaders are difficult to return to Rajya Sabha?
The return of big leaders seems difficult. Efforts are being made for re-election for Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge (Karnataka), but there is speculation that he will not return. Digvijay Singh (Madhya Pradesh) will not get a third term in place of Kamal Nath. HD Deve Gowda (Karnataka) JDS does not have the numbers so retirement is possible. Sharad Pawar (Maharashtra) term ends, NCP(SP) weak, Ranjan Gogoi (nominated) retire in March, Parimal Nathwani (Andhra) BJP will not give second term, Bikash Ranjan Bhattacharya CPI(M). These are all speculations, but the comeback from party strength seems tough.
Overall, NDA will become stronger in Rajya Sabha in 2026, which will make it easier to pass bills. The opposition will have to change its strategy.
