On a day when the lights went out across Cuba, Donald Trump switched his own on. Speaking to reporters at the White House on Monday, the US president declared that he believed he would have “the honor of taking Cuba”. Trump’s move on Cuba follows a now-familiar playbook: in January, US forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro after he refused to step down, making Venezuela the first Latin American nation to fall within Washington DC’s expanding sphere of influence.
“Taking Cuba. I mean, whether I free it, take it. I think I can do anything I want with it,” Donald Trump said. “They’re a very weakened nation right now.”
The timing was not coincidental. Cuba is enduring a nationwide blackout, its fuel reserves critically depleted, its hospitals postponing procedures, and its streets are rarely a place for public dissent—witnessing unusual protests. Into that vacuum stepped Washington DC, with a set of demands that amount to the most significant pressure campaign on Havana in a generation.
Washington DC’s Core Demand: Díaz-Canel Must Go
At the heart of the negotiations between US and Cuban officials lies a stark ultimatum: President Miguel Díaz-Canel must be removed from power, according to four people familiar with the discussions. US negotiators have made clear to their Cuban counterparts that the president’s departure is a prerequisite—though they are leaving it to the Cubans to determine what happens next.
Díaz-Canel, 65, has led Cuba since 2018 and is also president of the Communist Party, with two years remaining in his term. He holds the distinction of being the first person not named Castro to govern Cuba since the 1959 revolution, though he has long been regarded as a figurehead rather than a true power broker.
Real authority in Cuba rests elsewhere, chiefly with 94-year-old Raúl Castro, who remains a formidable behind-the-scenes force.
In the view of some Trump administration officials, Díaz-Canel’s removal would unlock the structural economic reforms that Havana needs but that the president, considered a hardliner by Washington DC, is unlikely to sanction. For Trump, it would deliver a potent political symbol: the toppling of a leftist leader, echoing his administration’s earlier capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro in January, after Maduro refused to relinquish power.
A Client State in the Making? The Economic Blueprint
Beyond the political theatre, the architecture of what Washington envisions for Cuba is coming into focus. US negotiators are pushing for Cuba to progressively open its economy to American businesses and investors, a gradual transformation that officials privately describe as laying the groundwork for something resembling a client state.
In exchange, the Trump administration is seeking the release of political prisoners and the removal of older officials still ideologically anchored to the Fidel Castro era.
Cuba’s deputy prime minister, Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, signaled Havana’s tentative readiness to engage, telling nbc news on Monday that his government was prepared to welcome foreign investment, including from across the Florida Straits. “Cuba is open to having a fluid commercial relationship with US companies, also with Cubans residing in the United States and their descendants,” he said.
Pérez-Oliva Fraga went further, suggesting the opening would extend well beyond the private sector. “This goes beyond the commercial realm,” he said. “It also applies to investments, not only to small ones, but also to large ones, especially in infrastructure.”
Cuban Exiles: The Bridge Between Havana and Washington DC
For Cuban Americans, who number in the millions across the US, particularly in Florida, the developments carry profound personal stakes. More than two million Cubans have left the island in the past five years alone. Díaz-Canel himself acknowledged as much in a televised appearance last week, stating: “It is our responsibility as the government to embrace them, listen to them, tend to them and offer them a space to participate in the economic and social development.”
Hugo Cancio, a Cuban American entrepreneur based in Miami, has been operating one of the most prominent US-linked businesses inside Cuba for years. His e-commerce platform, Katapulk—described by some as a Cuban equivalent of Amazon—allows Cubans living abroad to purchase and ship goods to family members on the island. Cancio believes the exile community could serve as a pivotal conduit between Havana and Washington, if Cuban Americans are formally granted the right to own and operate businesses on the island.
“As the Cuban authorities recognize our rights to be part of the Cuban nation, to participate in the economic transformation and the potential political reforms of the future, we will be the ones that will change Washington,” he said. “We will be the ones that will talk to Washington and say, ‘Our country now recognizes us, and we want to be part of that transformation.'”
The Hardliners Push Back: ‘Zero Investment Without Major Political Change’
Not everyone in the Cuban American community or in Congress is prepared to accept economic concessions as sufficient.
Carlos Giménez, a Republican congressman from Florida who is himself Cuban American, drew a firm line on Friday, writing in Spanish on X: “There will be ZERO investment from the US unless there is MAJOR political change on the island.”
The Trump administration has struck a similar tone in its back-channel warnings to Havana, reportedly cautioning that Cuba risks suffering a fate comparable to Venezuela’s if it fails to cooperate.
The New York Times citing a person close to the negotiations, reported Washington DC was carefully assessing whether Havana’s planned economic announcements represented genuine structural reform or merely cosmetic adjustments before deciding whether to issue the investment licenses that American businesses would require.
Blackouts, Fuel Crises and a Communist Govt Running Out of Road in Cuba
The backdrop against which all of this is unfolding is one of acute humanitarian strain. For three months, the US has effectively blocked Cuba’s access to foreign oil, choking off Venezuelan shipments and others. The consequences have been severe: rolling blackouts have become routine, hospitals are rationing services, food shortages have deepened, and protests — rare on the island — have begun to surface.
An evening television program on which Cuban officials had planned to announce new economic measures, Mesa Redonda, or Round Table, did not air at its scheduled hour on Monday. It was not immediately clear whether the power outage was responsible.
Some experts have warned that Cuba could exhaust its remaining fuel supplies within weeks. Whether Washington’s pressure campaign produces the political transformation it is seeking — or simply accelerates a humanitarian collapse — may be one of the defining questions of Trump’s second term.
