The US Supreme Court ruled on February 20 that President Donald Trump’s IEEPA tariffs were illegal. This came as a setback to the Trump administration and a big relief to other countries facing Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.
Most of the tariffs Trump imposed in 2025, including the “reciprocal” tariffs and the 10% baseline duties, made under International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), have now been invalidated.
From businesses to consumers to the Trump administration, here is who will stand to benefit from the US Supreme Court’s ruling, and who loses out.
Winners are…
trade lawyers
According to Business Insider, trade lawyers are likely to benefit from the ruling, as several businesses, large and small, that want to get tariff money back from the US government will need lawyers. It is likely to be a daunting process.
In court arguments, the Trump administration said companies would receive refunds if the tariffs were deemed unlawful, news agency AFP reported. Later, Trump made it clear on Friday that the US government will not make immediate refunds despite the ruling that the IEEPA tariffs are illegal.
That is because the Supreme Court did not explicitly address this issue. The matter could “end up in court for the next five years,” Trump said in his remarks.
Trump’s political rivals
Democratic lawmakers are now calling for Trump to hand out tariff refund checks to households. “Donald Trump has been illegally taxing your groceries, furniture, and cars for over a year. Time for a refund,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom posted on X on Saturday.
Newsom, Trump’s nemesis, was quoted by Business Insider as saying on Friday, “Donald Trump should return that money immediately. He has an obligation…He took hundreds of billions of dollars from working folks, from the ag community, from small businesses for this vanity play, this illegal action, and he finally was held to account.”
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker sent Trump an “invoice” letter to Trump. “On behalf of the people of Illinois, I demand a refund of $1,700 for every family in Illinois. There are 5,105,448 households in my state, bringing the total damages you owe to $8,679,261,600,” he wrote, as per CBS news.
Republicans who were divided on Trump’s tariffs
For a few hours on Friday, congressional Republicans seemed to get some relief from one of the largest points of friction they have had with the Trump administration. But it didn’t last.
According to the Associated Press, tariffs have been one of the only areas where the Republican-controlled Congress has broken with Trump. Both the House and Senate at various points have passed resolutions intended to rebuke the tariffs being imposed on trade partners like Canada.
Many Republicans greeted the Supreme Court’s decision with measured statements, some even praising it, and party leaders said they would work with Trump on tariffs going forward.
But by the afternoon, Trump made clear he had no intention of working with Congress and would instead go it alone by imposing a new global 10 percent import tax. On Saturday morning, he went further by saying he would raise that new tariff to 15 percent.
Losers
Trump administration
The Supreme Court ruling was a major setback for the Trump administration, which has been holding round after round of talks with big and small countries to reach a trade deal.
Not only did the decision upend a cornerstone of Trump’s economic agenda, but the federal government could be on the hook for a huge sum of money as US companies and importers fight to get back the tariffs, Business Insider reported.
If all collected duties are refunded, it’s estimated that the total repayment could reach approximately $175 billion (AUD 247 billion). Much to the president’s frustration, there was no clarity within the Supreme Court’s ruling on the process for refunds of illegally collected tariffs.
The Business Insider further cited the Customs and Border Protection data to claimed that as of December 10, 2025, a total of over 34 million entries subject to IEEPA duties have been made by over 301,000 importers, amounting to around $129 billion in tariff revenue.
The Committee for a Responsible Budget told Business Insider that the tariff ruling will reduce revenues on net by $1.9 trillion through Fiscal Year 2036 and increase debt by $2.4 trillion over the same period, assuming the tariffs are refunded without replacement.
Besides, tariffs and the impact of the ruling could complicate a 2026 midterm election message — especially on affordability.
middle of the road
Businesses
Small businesses that led the charge against IEEPA tariffs were reportedly celebrating. “It’s impossible to describe the feeling of elation, of seeing that yes, we were right and the court agrees with us, and a feeling that justice prevailed,” said Victor Schwartz, the lead plaintiff in the case against tariffs and the owner of VOS Selections, in a media event on Friday.
Per Hong, global lead of Kearney Foresight, however, told Business Insider that companies should not assume rapid balance-sheet relief. “Any reimbursement process is likely to move through the customs liquidation system and would be administratively slow, burdensome, and likely drawn out over years,” said Hong.
consumers
As per the report, American households could see inflation and prices ease, but it may not happen quickly — and it may not happen across all goods, depending on additional tariffs implemented. Josh Ketter, CEO of Spreetail, a top 100 US importer, told Business Insider that there may not be immediate price cuts.
