The financial impact of Trump’s trade war is becoming clearer, as a new analysis of US Census data shows that states across the country where key midterm elections will take place this year have paid over $134 billion in tariffs from March 2025 to last November.
Overall, the US states paid a combined $199 billion in tariffs during this period, the data compiled by Trade Partnership Worldwide showed. This means politically important states alone accounted for a large share of the total bill, CNBC reported.
US President Donald Trump has called affordability a “Democratic hoax”. In recent testimony before Congress, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant also claimed that the tariffs “do not cause inflation”.
Trump began imposing sweeping trade duties in March last year as part of an aggressive tariff campaign that targeted a wide range of US trading partners. These tariffs will be imposed on goods from major economies such as China, the European Union, Japan, and India.
How will this likely affect polls?
Trump’s tariffs and rising costs of living are expected to be key factors in the upcoming midterm elections. Recent CNBC survey data show that many Americans are feeling the pressure of higher prices and are unhappy with the state of the economy. A January poll from The New York Times and Siena University found that 54% of voters oppose Trump’s tariffs.
“Americans struggling with affordability rightly blame tariffs for higher prices on many everyday purchases,” said Dan Anthony, executive director of the We Pay the Tariffs small business coalition and president of Trade Partnership Worldwide. “The president could eliminate tens of billions in taxes in the states that will determine the 2026 elections. He just doesn’t want to,” Anthony said.
Anthony told the news agency that his coalition is highlighting the new data to counter rhetoric about tariffs being “paid by other companies” and being “paid to Americans” and to “educate the public about how tariffs actually work and who pays the price for them: American small businesses, workers, and consumers.”
Although tariffs are imposed on foreign goods, the cost is usually borne by businesses and consumers. Importers pay the extra tax at the border, but most pass it on to retailers, who then raise prices for shoppers. As a result, tariffs often lead to higher costs for everyday items such as cars, electronics, household goods and food, directly affecting affordability for a nation’s voters.
List of top US states and their tariff bills
—California: $38 billion
—Michigan: $13 billion
— Illinois: $9.6 billion
—Pennsylvania: $6.3 billion
— North Carolina: $5 billion
— South Carolina: $5.2 billion
This year, all 435 districts in the US House of Representatives and 33 seats in the US Senate are up for election. The Republicans hold slim majorities in both chambers of Congress. Hence, Democrats need to gain four seats to win a majority in the Senate. In order to keep control of the House, the Republican Party cannot afford to lose more than two seats.
The midterm elections primary season will kick off on March 3, with voters in Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas heading to the polls to choose their preferred party candidates.
