Quagmire is an English word popular in armies around the world. In Hindi it means swamp. War often proves to be such a quagmire in which even the world’s largest and most powerful army gets stuck. Therefore, America is also not an exception to this. If we talk about history, America is the only country which has had to face the most such situations, which started with the war waged in Vietnam. In the ongoing war between North and South Vietnam, the then President of America, Lyndon B. Johnson, took the responsibility of South Vietnam upon himself to prove his sovereignty and entered the war. It was expected that North Vietnam would not be able to stand against America’s power and the war would end soon, but this did not happen.
With the support of Russia and then China, North Vietnam defeated the American army. The dead bodies of the American soldiers who had gone into battle after two-four days of preparation, started being laid out. The war dragged on, American soldiers kept dying and when the bodies of about 58,000 American soldiers lay scattered, the American army had to flee Vietnam after 20 years. The purpose for which America had carried out this attack was also not fulfilled. As soon as America withdrew, South Vietnam was captured by North Vietnam and all the hard work of America went in vain.
America’s condition in Afghanistan
Same thing happened with America in Afghanistan also. When the US Army entered Afghanistan after the attack on Osama Bin Laden’s World Trade Center, the only objective was to eliminate the Taliban. America remained stuck here too. Billions of dollars spent. Thousands of American soldiers were killed. In 2021, when America, after 20 years of war, gathered all its equipment and came out of the war with its soldiers empty-handed, within a few days the Taliban captured the entire Afghanistan. Even today, Afghanistan is still under the rule of Taliban.
What happened to America in Iraq?
Iraq was also a Quagmire for America. It took 8 years for the American troops who landed in Iraq in 2003 to eliminate Saddam Hussein. Even though Saddam Hussein was eliminated, America won the initial war in just 21 days, but after that, American soldiers kept getting trapped in trying to stop Iraq’s civil war. About Rs 165 lakh crore was spent. More than four thousand American soldiers were killed and finally without achieving anything, the American army moved out of Iraq in 2011, but after that, dangerous terrorist organizations like ISIS and their different groups were formed which are still one of the biggest threats to America.
America scared of Iran’s attack
Iran is becoming another Quagmire for America. Where America had attacked with the aim of bringing about a change in power so that if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed then the power would change and America would get itself out of this war. However, this has not happened yet. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed by America and Israel on the very first day of the attack, but what is happening to America after that is far away from the thinking of America and especially Trump. After the death of Ali Khamenei, the Council of Iran has declared Ali Khamenei’s son Mujtaba as the Supreme Leader of Iran. Now America is attacking Tehran and Iran is attacking all America’s friends. The entire Middle East is in smoke. Thousands of people have been killed, but there is no sign of this war ending.
When did the Iran war start?
The war started on 28 February. Since then, America has destroyed more than 2 thousand Iranian targets by dropping bombs. Many top leaders including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have been killed. From nuclear bases to oil refineries and civilian residences, America has destroyed everything, but America has not achieved anything special, on the contrary, it has suffered losses. Iran has also retaliated. Even though Iran’s missiles and drones have not been able to directly target America, Iran has caused damage to American military installations in Israel and Gulf countries by hitting missiles and drones. More than 1200 people have died now. Among them are Iranian children, whose school was attacked by America. Iran had also fired missiles at the positions of American soldiers. Despite this devastation, neither Trump knows how to end this war nor does Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba realize what he wants.
Trump’s statement regarding war
As a result, the war is dragging on. Trump is saying that there will be no agreement with Iran and Iran will have to surrender without any conditions. They are appealing to the people of Iran that they should not accept the leadership of Mujtaba, but right now there is no one in Iran to listen to America. In such a situation, America is again at the same crossroads as it was in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Iran thwarted America’s intentions
America entered Iraq and killed Saddam Hussein, but even America did not have the answer to who was after Saddam. The same situation happened in Afghanistan also. After Taliban, America did not have any answer, so it kept getting stuck in the quagmire of war. Now even in Iran, America does not have the answer to who after Ali Khamenei. In fact, Trump had said after the February 28 attack that when our work is over, you take the reins of your government in your hands. America’s work is also finished. Khamenei was killed, but power did not change. Rather, Iran spoiled Trump’s intentions by giving command to Mujtaba.
What options does America have?
The only option left for America is that it either returns empty handed or it destroys the whole of Iran through air strikes, which is not possible. Or he should land his army on Iranian soil. Because without that IRGC cannot be eliminated. Until IRGC is abolished, Iran will keep fighting. After taking command, Mujtaba has also expressed his intentions that Iran will keep fighting. The real trouble begins from here, because a ground war in Iran could prove to be extremely costly and dangerous for America. Under the leadership of Mujtaba, Iran’s army is ready to face the US army. Otherwise, the geographical conditions of Iran are even more complex than those of Iraq or Afghanistan. America could not defeat the Taliban hiding in the caves of Afghanistan even in 20 years, then Iran has big mountains like Zagros and Alborz. Iran has hidden its missiles and nuclear centers inside these mountains, where fighting a ground war could prove suicidal for America.
America’s war history
America had to fight only the Taliban in Afghanistan or only Saddam in Iraq, but in Iran, America would have to fight not only the Iranian army, IRGC but also Hezbollah, Houthi and Iraqi militia. After this attack, America has also united the people of Iran, who were once protesting on the streets against Ali Khamenei. After the killing of Ali Khamenei, Mujtaba has won those protesters over to his side by invoking Islam and Iran, due to which Mujtaba has now got a chance to play openly and fight the war.
Now the question remains that if this war prolongs further, what will be its impact on the whole world and especially on India. This issue needs to be understood properly in two parts. The first part is that what can Iran do if the war drags on and the second is that if Iran takes that decision then what will be its impact, so first let’s talk about what Iran can do.
- Iran can completely close the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran can also close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
- If the war prolongs further, Iran may target ships passing through the Gulf of Oman.
- Now let us try to understand in detail what will be the reaction to this action of Iran.
What will be the impact if the Strait of Hormuz is closed?
The Strait of Hormuz is the route through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and 18 percent of gas is supplied. It is certain that the supply of oil and gas will be affected throughout the world. Its biggest impact will be on India. Experts believe that due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the price of crude oil may reach 150 to 200 dollars per barrel. If this happens, then the price of petrol and diesel in India too is likely to reach Rs 150 to Rs 200 per liter. The rest of the world’s 20% liquid natural gas comes through this route. Due to the partial closure, big gas exporters like Qatar have declared ‘force majeure’, due to which the prices of electricity and gas have doubled in Europe and Asia. As far as India is concerned, India procures almost 90% of its LPG requirement from Gulf countries through this route. India currently has reserves of crude oil, but does not have such a large stock of LPG. Due to this, both the shortage and price of gas cylinders may increase further. The effect has already started to be seen. One-third of the rest of the world’s urea is traded through this route. If the road is closed then Indian farmers will face shortage of fertilizers and the prices will increase so much that no one can even imagine. The rest of India’s daily crude oil, about 27 lakh barrels, comes through this route. If the road is closed, the oil reserves will also decrease, then no one will be able to stop the prices from increasing.
What will happen if Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is closed?
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a route connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Even though Iran does not have it, the government here is Iran’s proxy Houthis. If the Houthis block Bab al-Mandeb at the behest of Iran, then the route to the Suez Canal will also be blocked. About 12 to 15 percent of the world’s maritime trade takes place through this route. 30 percent of the container traffic is on this route. The closure of the route would mean that the shortest route between Asia and Europe would end. India may be the most affected country by this. Because India’s exports worth more than 240 billion dollars go to Europe and America through this route. If the route is closed, ships will have to go around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. Due to this, ships will take 15 to 20 extra days. If it takes more time then the cost will increase by 50-60 percent. Due to this, Indian products will become expensive in the world market and our exports will stop. The supply of essential components, chemicals and machinery coming to the rest of India will stop, due to which domestic manufacturing may slow down. If Iran succeeds in influencing both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, then Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE will have no safe sea route to export their oil.
What will happen if Gulf of Oman is closed?
The Gulf of Oman begins as soon as you exit the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Navy has reached the Gulf of Oman. Iran currently has enough power to target ships passing through this route using its mother ships like Shahid Bagheri and sea mines. And if this happens, it will be a bigger and more dangerous situation than the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Because closure of the Gulf of Oman means that oil will not be able to go out from Saudi, UAE, Kuwait. Oman had developed its ports like Duqm and Sohar as an alternative to Hormuz so that oil could be shipped from here in case of war. Now when the Gulf of Oman is also closed, then it will be very difficult for India because India demands a major part of its gas from Qatar and UAE through the Gulf of Oman.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei
However, all this will happen when Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has no other option but to fight the war and he has to face an even stronger attack from America. So far, the fear is that if America is not ready to step back under Trump’s leadership, then it will attack Iran with more force. After the arrival of Mujtaba, Iran is also not ready to surrender under any circumstances, so its reactions will also be more powerful, in which it will try to try all those options which I had talked about earlier also. Whatever happens, it will bring devastation in the world, because after Trump’s action and Iran’s reaction, even China and Russia will not be able to sit idly by. After all, they also want oil, they also want gas, they also want to do business with the world. If America’s attack becomes a hindrance in this, then Putin and Xi Jinping, who till now have been supporting Iran from behind the scenes, can come forward openly. Then history will probably remember it as the beginning of the Third World War, the outcome of which will be so terrible that one shivers in the scorching heat.
