The West Bengal Assembly Election will be held this year, putting Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s governance to the test. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief has been the chief minister of West Bengal since 2011 and will aim for a fourth term as CM in the 2026 assembly polls.
The TMC rose to power in Bengal after ending the Communist Party of India (Marxist)’s 30-year rule. Will it now be able to retain power and defeat the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which currently rules at least 20 states across the country? A new survey offers a hint.
What did the survey reveal?
The India Today–CVoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) 2026 survey revealed that Mamata Banerjee’s TMC is likely to repeat its performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections and retain almost all the seats it won that year if Lok Sabha elections were held today.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the TMC had won the majority of 29 seats of the total 42 parliamentary constituencies. The BJP won 12 seats, and the Congress bagged only one. This was despite several opinion polls giving the BJP an edge over the TMC in the Bengal general elections.
The recently released 2026 MOTN survey showed that if the Lok Sabha elections were held in West Bengal today, the TMC’s tally was likely to dip slightly to 28 seats.
In contrast, the August MOTN survey had projected the TMC to increase its tally to 31 seats, which has now been revised downward to 28 seats in the latest edition.
Meanwhile, the latest edition revealed that the BJP would have marginally increased its seat share to 14 seats had the general elections happened today. This result would have marked a rise from the 11 seats the BJP was projected to win in the MOTN survey’s August edition.
According to the 2026 MOTN survey, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to register a three-percentage-point rise in its vote share, increasing from 39 percent to 42 percent.
West Bengal Assembly Elections
The MOTN survey was released around two months ahead of the West Bengal Assembly elections and loosely serves as an indicator of the current mood among voters in the poll-bound state.
Ahead of the West Bengal Assembly Election 2026, the BJP has finalized a detailed list of Prabasi leaders from various states to strengthen its election campaign across different zones of the state, including Nabadwip, Kolkata, Howrah-Hooghly-Midnapore region, news agency ANI reported.
The list includes senior leaders, legislators, former ministers, organizational office-bearers, and youth leaders deputed from several states such as Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Bihar, and Tripura.
These leaders will work in coordination with the West Bengal BJP unit to oversee organizational activities, election preparedness, and grassroots mobilization in the allotted districts.
Meanwhile, West Bengal State President Samik Bhattacharya appointed in-charges for the respective assembly constituencies for the Legislative Assembly elections 2026. Bhattacharya announced the Assembly in-charges on all 294 seats.
Union Home Minister and senior BJP leader Amit Shah is also expected to visit West Bengal on January 30 and 31. During his two-day tour, Amit Shah is expected to hold important organizational and political meetings, further energizing the party cadre and reviewing preparations for the upcoming political challenges in the state.
