What will drive Britannia’s growth after GST sugar rush fades?

Britannia Industries Ltd’s December quarter (Q3FY26) earnings were largely in line with expectations, with consolidated revenue rising 9.5% year-on-year to Rs 4,885 crore. Growth during the quarter was evenly driven by volumes and realizations, as the company increased grammage for its 5 and 10 packs following the Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate cut in September.

The months of November and December recorded around 12% sales growth, indicating that demand improved once GST transition-related issues in October settled, said new MD & CEO Rakshit Hargave in his maiden investor call.

While biscuits posted high single-digit growth, adjacency categories such as cakes, rusks, croissants and wafers clocked double-digit growth. Analysts at Emkay Global Financial Services estimate that Britannia saw volume growth of around 5% in Q3FY26, compared with a 3% decline in Q2FY26 and 6% growth in Q3FY25.

GST boost, briefly

According to Motilal Oswal Financial Services, with 60–65% of its portfolio in low unit price packs ( 5/ 10), Britannia is well positioned to benefit from the GST rate revision. However, analysts cautioned that the GST-led volume push is a short-term lever.

For sustained long-term growth, the new management faces elevated competition from regional players, with eastern India seeing the highest intensity. While competitors cut prices of 5/ 10 packs to 4.5/ 9, Britannia opted to increase grammage. This pricing and pack-size confusion led to some revenue loss, management said, though the industry is now expected to fully migrate to 5/ 10 packs with higher grammage.

Regional competition remains a key concern. To counter this, the company plans to step up media spending, strengthen its brands, and develop new flavors and formats. In this context, the appointment of a new chief marketing officer is expected to sharpen focus on branding, which was earlier managed across separate verticals.

online runway

E-commerce and quick commerce are being seen as structural growth engines rather than alternate channels. Currently, e-commerce contributes a high single-digit share to Britannia’s revenues, but this is expected to rise to the early teens by FY27.

At present, only around 20% of biscuit consumers are active on e-commerce platforms, indicating a long runway for online growth. Notably, e-commerce’s contribution to adjacency categories is about three times that of biscuits, suggesting that online platforms are helping these segments scale faster. These categories also lend themselves to impulse and indulgence purchases—an area where quick commerce thrives.

Over time, as adjacencies form a larger part of Britannia’s revenue mix, they could also support better margins, given their relatively premium positioning compared with basic biscuits.

Margin comfort

On margins, the near-term outlook appears comfortable, supported by easing input costs. Raw material prices such as flour, cocoa and palm oil softened in Q3. Britannia does not plan to maximize margins in the short term, as it intends to reinvest part of these gains into brand building, new product launches and strengthening its digital presence.

Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) said operating margins touched the 20%-level in Q3FY26, after 22 quarters, but with emphasis on investments in brand-building, they foresee expansion of only around 25 basis points in FY26-FY28.

Over the past year, the stock has gained around 25% and is trading at about 51 times FY27 earnings, according to Bloomberg data. While efforts to tackle competition, scale adjacency categories and improve e-commerce and quick-commerce salience support the revenue growth outlook, valuations already appear to factor in much of the optimism.

Source

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *