Plastic pipes maker Supreme Industries Ltd did reasonably well in the December quarter (Q3FY26). Overall volume growth stood at 13% year-on-year and plastic pipes volumes rose at a higher-than-expected pace of around 16%, aided by integration of Wavin India’s piping business.
The upshot? Consolidated EBITDA at ₹Rs 3,292 crore grew by nearly 7% year-on-year in Q3 after five quarters of decline, noted Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
What’s more, the outlook for Q4 is upbeat as plastic piping demand is seen returning to normalcy after prolonged destocking. This is supported by good monsoons, improving rural sentiment, and revival in housing, agricultureand infrastructure activity, particularly from January to March.
Thus, Supreme maintained an overall volume growth target of 12-14% for FY26 and 15-17% for plastic pipes. The guidance implies around 20-24% year-on-year volume growth in Q4 for the plastic pipes segment, said Motilal Oswal. This should improve revenue visibility to some extent, as plastic pipes dominate Supreme’s revenue mix, with over 60% share. Packaging products, industrial products and consumer products are its other segments.
On the flipside, the continuous drop in polyvinyl chloride (PVC) resin prices pushed Supreme to trim FY26 revenue guidance to Rs11,000-11,500 crore from Rs12,000 crore. EBITDA margin guidance was also lowered to 13.5-14% from prior 14.5 -15%.
PVC price erosion until December led to de-stocking by channel partners, causing inventory losses. PVC Price movement helps determine destocking/restocking of dealer inventories for plastic pipe companies.
For the nine months ended December, Ebitda margins were impacted by Rs100–120 crore of inventory losses, the management said. But the pain has bottomed out with PVC prices rising in 2026 to around $650 per tonne now versus a low of $580, it added.
So, restocking has started. Besides the broader demand improvement, prices would also get support from China’s export restrictions starting April.
Meanwhile, FY26 capital expenditure is set at Rs1,200 crore for greenfield additions, integration of acquired units, and debottlenecking to be fully funded through internal accruals.
Supreme expects operating margin to normalize at around 14.5 -15% supported by a rising value-added product mix. Q3FY26 operating margin was 12.3%. But for now, to factor-in margin due to downward revision in guidance, Elara Securities (India) has cut its earnings estimates by 11.7%/5.5% for FY26/27.
Weak PVC prices have led to a 17% drop in Supreme’s shares in the past three months. It trades at 38x FY27 estimated earnings, as per Bloomberg consensus, which is pricey.
