Will US tariff uncertainty boost near-term demand for gold and silver?

A major development unfolded last week as the US Supreme Court on Friday drew lines around the tariffs, invalidating the ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs announced by President Donald Trump in April 2025, marking a significant turning point in US trade policy and global trade governance.

The US Supreme Court found that the President had overstepped his powers when he introduced sweeping global tariffs last year using a 1977 law known as the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The court held that the power to impose tariffs under the IEEPA vested in Congress and not the President.

The White House, which imposed sweeping tariffs on all trading partners, citing a larger trade deficit with countries such as China, including India, has collected billions of dollars, which could now face refund claims, creating fiscal pressure and adding near-term uncertainty to the global trade.

Also Read | Trump slams Supreme Court again after tariff setback, calls it ‘incompetent’

Trump announces new tariff rate

Soon after the Supreme Court ruling, Trump replaced the tariffs scrapped by the court with a 10% levy on all goods coming into the US under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 and later raised it to 15%, the maximum allowed under the law, creating more uncertainty in US trade policy.

Additional details were not immediately forthcoming on how soon the 15% tariff would go into effect. The initial 10% tariffs Trump announced on Friday were scheduled to go into effect on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported, citing a White House fact sheet.

Meanwhile, many countries have already finalized trade agreements with the US, with Trump also lowering tariffs on India to 18% from 50%, earlier this month citing the government’s efforts to reduce dependence on Russian oil, while the official trade deal between the two countries was still not yet finalized.

Also Read | How a flat 15% US tax helps India’s small businesses beat global rivals

Should investors consider buying gold and silver amid US tariff uncertainty?

The Trump trade policies, which changed the world order that had remained intact for many decades, were one of the primary reasons behind the strong rally in precious metals in 2025. Following the US Supreme Court ruling, tariff uncertainty once again came to the surface, which analysts see as a fresh catalyst for precious metals.

Analysts expect demand for precious metals to remain high until clarity emerges on US trade policy, which is already evident in the 1.4% rally in gold spot prices today, reaching $5,176 per troy ounce, while silver spot prices rose 4% to reach $87.83 per ounce.

Also Read | Gold Price Hits ₹1.60 Lakh, Silver Jumps 6% Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Domestic brokerage firm JM Financial said in its latest report that, in the interim, it expects more appetite for safe-haven assets like gold, while concerns over debt and weakening growth in the US will exert pressure on the US dollar.

Nikunj Saraf, CEO of Choice Wealth, said that gold’s recent jump was driven by policy-driven uncertainty around US tariffs, which weakened the dollar and pushed investors toward safe havens. He said that whether the gains last depend on what comes next: if tariffs and related market fears persist, gold can hold higher; If policy settles and real yields rise, prices may retreat.

Hareesh V, Head of Commodity Research at Geojit Investments, said that gold prices have risen amid Trump’s tariff turmoil and uncertainty surrounding their legality. He said that even if the Supreme Court views the tariffs as invalid, ongoing trade tensions may still pressure the US dollar and support bullion.

Also Read | Gold’s surge: Investors should weigh each of its price drivers with due care

Beyond tariffs, Hareesh said that factors such as central bank buying, expectations of lower US interest rates, persistent geopolitical risks, and slower global growth could continue to underpin gold in the long run, keeping its overall outlook constructive.

Disclaimer: : This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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