Gold prices have delivered stellar returns since the past year, driven by strong safe-haven demand amid persistent global geopolitical uncertainties. In India, physical demand for gold is expected to rise as the country celebrates the festival of Akshaya Tritiya on Sunday, 19 April. Buying gold on this occasion is considered highly auspicious.
Since Akshaya Tritiya last year (April 30, 2025), MCX gold prices have rallied approximately 63%, generating substantial gains for the holders of the yellow metal. Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also mirrored this strong performance, delivering impressive returns over the same period.
On average, gold ETFs have generated returns in the range of 59–60% since the last Akshaya Tritiya, with some funds even surpassing the 60% mark.
Among the top performers, Quantum Gold ETF and Tata Gold ETF gained around 60% each. Aditya Birla Sun Life Gold ETF delivered 58.73% returns, followed by ICICI Prudential Gold ETF with 58.69% returns and Zerodha Gold ETF with 58.60% rally.
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Kotak Gold ETF rose 58.51%, while DSP Gold ETF and HDFC Gold ETF advanced 58.49% and 58.48%, respectively.
According to Akshat Garg, Head of Research and Product at Choice Wealth, the surge has been driven by a combination of global safe‑haven demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and strong domestic interest in gold, both in physical form and through ETFs.
“Sustained inflows into gold ETFs picked up steadily, pushing prices higher and amplifying the gains for those who stayed invested,” said Garg.
For many investors, what started as a modest allocation to gold has now turned into a significantly larger slice of the portfolio, thanks to this sharp rally, he added.
Deveya Gaglani, Senior Research Analyst – Commodities, Axis Securities, highlighted that gold ETF prices have risen from around ₹78 to ₹125 since the previous Akshaya Tritiya, translating into returns of nearly 60%.
“The outlook remains positive for the next year. Crude oil prices have crashed from a peak of $119 down to the $84 level, as market participants are expecting US-Iran peace deal soon, which will cool down inflationary concerns that acted as a headwind for the yellow metal. However, gold stood firm despite the bleak sentiment, and Comex gold price is back above the $4,800 level, which is a positive sign for prices,” said. Gaglani.
She expects gold prices to deliver returns of 10–15% in the second half of 2026.
Should investors hold or book profits?
Gaglani advises investors to continue holding gold ETFs in their portfolios, while suggesting that new investors can consider building exposure gradually through a staggered approach.
Akshat Garg emphasized that the decision to hold or book profits should be guided by an investor’s asset allocation strategy.
“If gold has quietly become a much larger portion than originally intended, it may be prudent to book some gains and rebalance. This does not mean exiting completely, but rather locking in a part of the gains and restoring the original allocation structure,” he said.
For investors whose gold exposure remains within or below their target allocation, maintaining or gradually increasing exposure could still be appropriate. “Gold continues to act as an effective portfolio diversifier and a hedge against volatility and currency risks,” Garg added.
He further advised investors to avoid reacting to short-term price movements or all-time highs. Instead, Akshaya Tritiya 2026 can serve as an opportunity to review portfolio positioning — assessing current gold allocation against targets and taking a structured approach, either through rebalancing or continued long-term exposure, in line with overall investment objectives and risk tolerance.
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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
