Crude Price Shock Ahead: Amidst the Iran tension, crude oil prices today rose to $ 84 per barrel, which is almost a one-year high. Crude has become costlier by about 20 percent in the last 5 days and by 34 percent in the last 3 months. He has not even ruled out the possibility of increase in the prices of petrol and diesel.
What is the outlook regarding crude?
Brokerage firm Citi believes that crude may further touch the range of $90. Risk premium may remain in the market. If the Iran war prolongs or internal and regional instability persists, oil prices could remain high for a long time. However, if the tension subsides soon, prices may come back to around $70.
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While issuing an alert on crude, Goldman Sachs has said that if the supply of oil from the Strait of Hormuz remains less for the next 5 weeks, then the price of Brent crude may even reach $ 100 per barrel. According to the report, oil stocks are expected to decrease in OECD countries, oil production in the Middle East may decrease, because the supply of oil from the Strait of Hormuz is decreasing.
Let us tell you that about 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. More than 40% of India’s total crude oil imports also come through this route.
crude price movement
In 5 days: +20%
In 1 month: +21%
In 3 months: +34%
In 1 year: +19%
5 reasons due to which petrol prices may increase
Ajay Kedia, Director of Kedia Advisory, says that the possibility cannot be completely ruled out that the prices of petrol and diesel may increase in the coming days.
He says that the first reason is that due to tension in the Middle East, crude prices are continuously increasing. Crude is currently around $84, which can further go up to $88 to $90.
The second reason is that due to the war, while the dollar index has strengthened to the level of 99, the rupee has fallen to an all-time low of around 92.50 per dollar. The rise in Brent crude prices amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has increased demand for the US dollar as a safe haven asset.
The third reason is that India now has to take oil from Venezuela instead of Iran and Russia, whose casting is higher.
The insurance premium for oil coming from Venezuela is also high, which will affect imports.
India currently has 20 to 25 days of stock, but if the war continues longer, tension regarding this will increase.
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